2009 YTD International Fund Returns

We all know about US ETFs such as SPY, which invests in S&P 500 Index. But, are we aware of other countries ETFs especially the emerging markets? I started gathering data on 2009

Prepare to Add GOLD to Your Portfolio Before Too Late!

The graph below is a 2 year chart of GLD.  As you can see from the long term chart, the price of GLD is very close to reaching the upward trend line.  After reaching the peak early December 2009, GLD has been on the decline ever since.  I'm thinking

Chile ETF Provides a Great Opportunity for US Investors

Why is Chile ETF showing a bright future for the US investors? We know that Chile recently went through one of its worst economic slump and now we have seen signs of life in Chile and its ETF. It is iShares MSCI Chile (ECH), which launched in November 2007, has gone up nearly 83% year-to-date.

Stocks with more than 1000% Return in 2009

Have you heard of Diedrich Coffee (DDRX)?  Well..  Now you will!  DDRX is one of many stocks that resulted in more than 1000%.  It started the year at $0.36/share.  Today, it is trading at $34 range.  This is more than 9500%

KERX Hits a LONG Homerun!

I was looking at several stocks this morning and ran into this one. It’s Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX). Let’s look at one year chart.

AAPL Making a Move But Which Direction?

Look at past three months of trading for AAPL. Do you notice something?  AAPL has clearly made a double top near $205-$210 price range and has been consolidating since then, making a tight triangle pattern.

S&P500 Now @ 50% Retracement Level

SP500 has been trading side ways for more than one month now and has once again reached 50% retracement level today.  It closed at $1118 with relatively low volume.  However, I expect SP500 to go down from here.  At this point, I just don't see this index going beyond 50% retracement level, which is at $1121 range.  We should see SP500 reach next two support levels at $1107 and $1097 within next week.

BEN @ Critical Junction

Similar to DTG that I posted last week, BEN also provides a great opportunity to make some profit.  BEN has gone up significantly from low of $40 in 2009 to high of $116.  Ben went up too high too fast.  Logically, we need to be SHORTING BEN.  But, let’s see what the technical analysis has to say about BEN.

A Very Interesting Trend Line Forming on US Dollar Index…

Let’s look at past history on US Dollar Index.  In 2007, US Dollar Index significantly declined and formed a trend line as shown in the chart.  When it broke the trend line, US Dollar Index took off in 2008 creating a double top. 

Golden Opportunity for Bears: Is It a Perfect Time To Short DTG?

Check out the year-to-date chart for the Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group (DTG).  It is currently trading around $24-$25 range from its low of $0.60 on March 3, 2009. 

High Potential in China

Recently, more and more US investors are interested in the international market and are constantly looking for ways to add to their portfolio. By now everyone is aware of the potential growth in China. Chinese government passed a stimulus package worth $580,000,000,000 and has the potential to significantly stimulate Chinese market reaching majority of the middle class.

GOOG at $600 Resistance Level

After losing 50% in 2008, Google has performed really well in 2009. It has regained most of its loss from 2008 and currently is at a critical point at $600. $600 is a resistance level going back to mid-2008, the last time GOOG was trading at this level. One thing to note is that GOOG has been trading up in 2009 with decreasing volume and the volume has been declining even more since October. Also, keep in mind that those who own GOOG will start taking profits at this level. There is a good chance that GOOG has reached its peak short term and will head lower from $600. But, be careful because if S&P500 breaks its 50% retracement level at $1120, then GOOG will continue its upward movement along with the stock market. At this level, I would take the risk and SHORT GOOG with a tight stop-loss.







UPDATE on 12/24/09:
It looks like GOOG has cleanly broken its 50% retracement level.  I took the risk and shorted GOOG but fortunately my stop was very tight so I did not lose too much money.  Although GOOG could continue to go up from here, I am expecting it to eventually retrace back to $600 again to test now the support line.  Good luck everyone.


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Technical Analysis: GOLD and S&P500

SHORT Opportunity: GS, ASH, LUV

Today, I would like to discuss three stocks (c) that have a high SHORT opportunity.

Goldman Sachs Group company (GS) recently crossed $166 level and it looks like it will be bearish as we move into 2010. GS is a good candidate for Short as it will continue to go down from currently trading level at $164.

Ashland (ASH) is another stock that is a good candidate for Short. At current price of $39-$40 level, it is really a good opportunity to enter Short position. Expect ASH to reach around $20 level by mid 2010

Lastly, Southwest Airline (LUV) is positioning itself for another decline. Check out the last 10 year chart on LUV. As you can see clearly that $11 has been the support for many years and this year $11 is the resistance. Now that LUV has reached $11 with lower volume from its low of $5 this year, this is a great opportunity for SHORT at current price.

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Technical Analysis: GOLD and S&P500

Let’s Look At GOLD YTD and SP500 in 2009

In 2009 Gold rallied to its peak of $1225 from its low of $814. This is about $36% profit. Recently, however, Gold has been on a downward trend almost every day in December to a retracement level at $1100, the 50 day exponential moving average. If buyers do not support this price level, then there would be further downward trend towards $1025 and critical $1000 levels. Gold will eventually start moving higher but the big question remains… how low will Gold go down before continuing its upward trend again? Be cautious not to re-enter Gold positions too early. Check out my previous post on Gold ETFs.

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Check out my prediction on GOLD back in December 2, 2009.

The S&P 500 has been on sideway trading since early November. It looks like S&P500 will not go beyond its 50% retracement level at $1120. Watch out for $1083 level. If S&P500 goes below this level, then everyone needs to get out of all LONG positions. I have a feeling S&P500 might just reach $1083 level soon in December. Check out some of the inverse ETFs that may do well as the market declines.

Feel free to leave a cooment on your predictions on Gold market and S&P500.

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First Contest!

What Technical Analysis is Telling Us - XLF

Let’s take a look at XLF – Financial AMEX Sector SPDR. If you look at the past 6 months history, it is clear that the support area is at the $14.00 area, which is also the 38.3% Fibonacci retracement from the July lows. You can also extract the Head and Shoulders forming. The head is in the October month with left shoulder in September and right should in November going into December. There are also negative momentum and negative volume forming starting from August. A clean break below $14.00 or $13.75 would be a major sell signal so follow this stock closely.

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0% APR Balance Transfer Offers

Even as early as last year, getting 0% APR for 15 months was a possibility. Unfortunately, that is no longer true going forward. Currently, the longest 0% balance transfer offer is for 12 months, which still is not too bad. There aren’t too many credit card companies that offer 0% for 12 months, but they do exist. To compensate for these companies to be able to offer such a low APR for a long period, they add higher fees. Because many consumers are building higher credit card debt, the banks now make it harder for anyone to get approved for new credit cards with higher rate and shorter length of balance transfer. All consumers should continue to take advantage of the 0% APR but primary goal should be getting rid of debt as soon as possible.

Here are some good 0% APR Balance Transfer offers available with no fees or low fees.

SP500, Gold Down Day Again...

SP500 closed today at 1091.84 and will most likely reach 1087 tomorrow before moving higher towards 1105. Generally, the stock market will continue to be volatile unless it cleanly breaks 1087 and 1072 supports. Until then, wait for these break out levels before making any firm decision on the direction of the stock market.

Gold has come down considerably since it reached its high of $1226 level. Both Gold ETFs, GDX and GDXJ, have gone down more than 10% during the same timeframe. GDX closed at $47.75 and GDXJ closed at $25.48. These are good entry points since gold will eventually go up again. If Gold goes down again tomorrow, I will be buying more of them.

SP500 50% Retracement Level

On friday, SP500 reached $1120 before falling to $1105. It's going to be difficult for SP500 to go above $1120 since it is 50% Fibonacci retracement from the low of this year. I'm pretty confident SP500 will touch $1120 level one more time this week but will not break this level. SP500 can only fall from this level and eventually, it will come back to $1120 at later date, sometime next year. Although it is less likelihood of occurring, but if for some reason the Bull becomes too strong and cleanly break $1120 level, then the stock market will continue to go up from here.

Looking for a Job? There are about 1 Million Jobs Available

Believe it or not, the government is now hiring. There was an article that stated the Census is looking to hire about 1 million positions and would pay pays anywhere from $10 - $20. They have part-time and full-time jobs where you can work anywhere from 20-40 hours. But, there is a catch. You have to pass a tough exam… Click this link for a practice exam.

Apply HERE for a census job…

http://2010.census.gov/2010censusjobs/how-to-apply/local-office-map.php

Here is the recent article from jobs.aol.com...

If you need a job and are good with people and numbers, the government might have work for you. The U.S. Census Bureau just began the process of hiring more than one million temporary workers for its 2010 population count. If hired, you’ll get good pay, flexible hours, paid training, mileage reimbursement and the sense of doing something to help out your country. Best of all, you don’t have to go very far – the jobs are right where you live.

Every 10 years, the Census Bureau takes on the

massive project of attempting to count every person who lives in the United States. While most get forms mailed to them, not everyone fills them out properly or at all. You’ll go door-to-door in your community to encourage people to fill out their questionnaires and help them with any questions they might have. You will also conduct brief interviews with some residents to help learn more about them for the survey.

In exchange for your hard work, you’ll earn anywhere from $10 to $20 an hour. The Census Bureau has a neat interactive map on its website where you can see how much the job pays near you. Be prepared to work anywhere from 20 to 40 hours a week and mainly nights and weekends – after all, that’s when people are home. The length of the job depends on how much work there is to be done in your area.

If this all sounds good to you, you’re not alone. Nabbing a census job might not be easy in this current economic slump. There’s a deluge of qualified workers – many with years of professional experience and degrees – also applying.

Here are the qualifications, according to the Census website:

* You are able to read, write, and speak English.
* You are a U.S. citizen.
* You are a legal permanent resident, or non-citizen with an appropriate work visa, and you possess a bilingual skill for which there are no available qualified U.S. citizens.
* You are at least 18 years old.
* You have a valid social security number.
* You take a written test of basic skills.
* You have a valid driver’s license.
* You pass a background check.
* You commit to four days of training. You will be paid for training days. Training can be held either during daytime hours or during evening and weekend hours.

There’s also a multiple-choice test you’ll have to pass. It quizzes your reading, clerical, number and organizational skills. You can take a practice test on the Census Bureau website. Being bilingual can also help your chances of landing the job.

Ready to apply? Just head to the Census Bureau website, print and fill out the appropriate forms and then call your local census office to schedule an in-person interview and test. Good luck!

SHORTS Win today!

Yesterday, I posted that Gold will go down from $1220 level and it did just that today. If there are any sluggish recovery signs in the unemployment number tomorrow AM, then there will be a significant downturn in the stock market including Gold. However, it will not go down continually. It will present a great opportunity to enter the Gold market as well as some of ETFs.

What is an Inverse ETF?

An inverse Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is also much like a mutual fund consisting of a group of stocks. However, an inverse ETF consists of a group of stocks that takes opportunity to make a profit when the price of stock market falls. It follows the inverse of the stock market. If you believe the market overall will fall, you can actually add these inverse ETFs into your portfolio. This strategy is very similar to shorting stocks but without using a margin account. We all know that when you want to short a stock, your brokerage account must be converted to a margin account. Otherwise, you cannot short any stocks.

I advise investors not to get into inverse ETFs as a long-term investment because the market cannot go down for a very long time and it goes against the history of the stock market. There will be ups and downs but overall, the market tends to go upward direction. Inverse ETFs are attractive when there is a downturn in the stock market to minimize the losses.

Here are three inverse ETFs:

1. SRS - ProShares UltraShort Real Estate

The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.

2. FAZ - Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shrs

The Fund seeks daily investment results of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the Financial Index. The Fund seeks to create short positions by investing at least 80% of its net assets in Financial Instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the Financial Index.

3. ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shrs

The Fund seeks daily investment results of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the Energy Index. The Fund seeks to creates short positions by investing at least 80% of its net assets in Financial Instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the Energy Index.

Alert: GOLD’s Potential To Fall From Current Level

Gold is now trading around $1220 level and had gone up to fast in a short period of time. I believe it’s time for Gold to retrace back to lower level, possibly in the range of $1160 or even down to $1080 before it continues its rise. If you are looking to enter Gold market, I highly recommend waiting until it falls to lower level. It would be a good opportunity to enter some of the Gold market ETFs that I posted yesterday.

SP500 Resistance Level Reached Today

It looks like S&P500 hit it’s resistance level at 1112 today. It should not go much higher than 1112. I’m expecting the market to go down from here. The next support is at 1102 level and once S&P500 reaches this level, it should quickly go down to 1091. You need to closely watch S&P500 because if it ever reaches 1072 mark, then everyone needs to exit all long positions and stay on the sidelines or start entering short positions.

Top 10 ETFs for profit in December 2009

Now that you know what ETFs are, here are 10 ETFs that could work in your favor by the end of this year. This list is based on last month’s performance because I feel that it will continue into December 2009. I expect Gold to level off as we get closer to Christmas so expect to get out of gold market by then.

Top 10 ETFs for profit in December 2009

	Description	Stock Symbol	% Profit
1	Gold Miners	GDX	17
2	Ultra Basic Materials	UYM	13
3	Comex Gold Trust	IAU	13
4	Spider Gold Trust	GLD	13
5	DB Precious Metals	DBP	12
6	Silver Trust	SLV	10
7	E T F S Silver Trust	SIVR	10
8	PDB Silver	DBS	10
9	Market Vectors Steel	SLX	10
10	Ultra Industrials	UXI	10

Introducing New Gold ETF

Once Gold broke the $1000 resistance level, it has been on nothing but an upward trend. It has quickly broken the next two projections at $1080 and $1160. Gold will continue to go up as long as the dollar is weak. As dollar gains strength, Gold will lose steam and will go the reverse direction. But for now, Gold’s next target is at $1240. Investors should not be asking themselves if today is a good time to get into Gold. Instead, they should be asking themselves how they can buy Gold now.

The two ETFs, SPDR Gold (GLD) and Gold Miners ETF (GDX), have done very well, as Gold price continued to move upward. GDX has done better than GLD in 2009. GDX has gained 46% while GLD has gained 25%. However, there is now a new ETF that could serve you even better than the first two ETFs. It’s called Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). Unlike the other two ETFs, GDXJ provides exposure to junior gold miners. Since these junior gold miners markets are smaller, the potential for their growth is much higher compared to other Gold ETFs. The portfolio of GDXJ consists of 39 different junior gold miners. GDXJ will experience more volatility than GDX and GLD since many companies in the portfolio are still in early stage without much revenue. For short-term investors, GDXJ has a higher potential compared to GDX. For long-term investors, I do not recommend GDXJ due to higher volatility. Instead, GLD could be more attractive in your diversified portfolio.

I do not own GDXJ as of today. But, I plan to buy shares of GDXJ sometime this week as a short-term investment. I am confident that as Gold prices continue its movement upward, GDXJ will definitely reap the benefit.

What is an ETF?

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is much like a mutual fund consisting of a group of stocks. Unlike the mutual fund, you can trade ETFs in the open stock market. Transactions related to mutual funds can only occur after the stock market closes. Since ETFs can be traded anytime while stock market is opened, there will be broker fees.

Dubai's Financial Concerns...

The S&P 500 index closed much lower last Friday as many investors exited their equity positions for more safe investments due to financial concerns in Dubai when it attempted to reschedule its $80+ billion debt. However, there was a quick pull back from the sell rally as shorts started to cover their early session losses, profiting their gain. It looks like there could be a steady opening on Monday but it could generate additional weakness in the market. Close below the 20-day moving average (1083) will mean we have seen the short-term top at 1102 area. But, if market rallies above at 1112 area in next week, then there is more upside left and it could continue to post higher levels. Keep in mine the next resistance level at 1103 and the next support level at 1083 as you make trade decisions next week.

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